Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 23.626793 25.969705 28.606038 31.828223 35.711517 40.310654 46.281316
2025-01-26 20.244374 23.257321 26.926656 31.850825 38.504136 47.554960 61.584641
2025-02-02 18.082340 21.458637 25.824264 32.142356 41.576447 56.249087 83.944776
2025-02-09 16.548589 20.140983 25.013386 32.527127 44.803596 66.609075 118.309642
2025-02-16 15.307751 19.000102 24.201381 32.655010 47.605285 77.792444 170.859464
2025-02-23 14.172507 17.845711 23.167848 32.174974 49.159569 87.563513 244.525085
2025-03-02 13.359854 17.049096 22.538418 32.200798 51.649590 101.491375 404.880856
2025-03-09 12.614997 16.270115 21.825700 31.925958 53.427833 115.379452 749.229742
2025-03-16 11.951099 15.548959 21.115138 31.516333 54.780302 129.754064 1831.953845
2025-03-23 11.385978 14.929734 20.500357 31.175800 56.201486 146.722913 19654.361106
2025-03-30 10.908165 14.407613 19.991623 30.954042 57.873758 168.131762 NaN
2025-04-06 10.390976 13.788487 19.262352 30.179126 57.835026 181.780095 NaN
2025-04-13 10.257749 13.771474 19.572363 31.621611 64.814042 260.794075 NaN
2025-04-20 9.879092 13.334495 19.104042 31.321641 66.405475 309.527805 NaN
2025-04-27 9.592209 13.029252 18.845539 31.450973 69.565034 401.594495 NaN
2025-05-04 9.350277 12.782683 18.671600 31.747393 73.561153 565.678764 NaN
2025-05-11 9.101281 12.509451 18.424885 31.834513 76.902295 819.669742 NaN
2025-05-18 8.804913 12.141135 17.972122 31.357931 77.768162 1072.092535 NaN
2025-05-25 8.585900 11.893016 17.730368 31.374758 80.899055 1844.790789 NaN
2025-06-01 8.350876 11.606266 17.394413 31.107926 82.673119 3358.991921 NaN
2025-06-08 8.117707 11.312568 17.026586 30.713992 83.715425 7396.438435 NaN
2025-06-15 7.905938 11.047144 16.698467 30.387051 85.028048 53767.910903 NaN
2025-06-22 7.718329 10.816093 16.424685 30.174243 86.936368 NaN NaN